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Predicting Success of Clinical Trials

In spite of huge progress in understanding disease biology and technological advances in patient selection and clinical study design, the failure rates of clinical trials are still very high. According to Hay et al. [1] the probability of drugs in phase III to get approved across different indications was only 50%. This is noteworthy in light of the fact that most drugs that make it into phase III have successfully completed phase II, this implies that they met the primary efficacy endpoint and had an acceptable safety profile.